The time has come, Oscar time! It’s once again time for an Aurens vs. Grizzly predictions smackdown as well, though the stakes are higher this time and the price of glory even higher. I have no idea what I’m talking about but it sounds cool. A little guide to the predictions: Aurens’ predictions are in the left column, mine (Grizzly) are in the right column. The picks in Danger Red are our alternates that might slip in and the picks in Dreamy Blue are our personal picks that we hope will get nominated. We’d love to hear what you think, about our predictions, your own predictions, your hopes and fears, anything at all.
And now, without further ado, the predictions!
Aurens: The Best Picture category is pretty much set. This is the exact set nominated by the Producers Guild, and they’ve got a scary record when it comes to predicting the Oscars. United 93 may have an outside chance, but that chance is slimmer than Nicole Richie on a good day. Letters from Iwo Jiwa may make an appearance if enough people have seen it. Had it been released earlier, I’m betting anything that it would be on that list.
Grizzly: I agree. Barring some giant shocker of a nomination, these five are it. I don’t think anyone is predicting this to go any different. Kinda boring that it’s virtually impossible for any surprise, but oh well.
Aurens: I feel there’s going to be a surprise in this category, and it’s gonna be Clint Eastwood making an appearance. But who’s gonna be left out? I was going to leave out Dayton and Faris, but they just got the win from the PGA so it’s a done deal that they’re in. Suddenly Babel doesn’t look as much a sure bet as it once was to me.
Grizzly: I’m betting on Paul Greengrass. United 93 was such an acclaimed film, and no one could’ve told that story better. He’s absolutely the most deserving. I took out Dayton and Faris, though now I am definitely doubting after the PGA win of their film. They still feel like the weakest link IF there is to be a lone director though. It could just as well match Picture 5 for 5.
Aurens: There is a distinct possibility that Leonardo DiCaprio may get a double nomination, but does the Academy love him that much? I’m putting Ryan Gosling in there not because I actually think he was good in the film (I haven’t seen it), but I have a sneaking suspicion that there’s gonna be a surprise from a summer film somewhere. This category is one of the four filler categories (all acting) at this year’s Oscars, where the front runner status is so firm that only a nasty campaign can change the course. Ain’t gonna happen.
Grizzly: I actually think there are rules against double nominations in the same category, so Gosling is pretty much in since there can’t be two nominations for DiCaprio. Borat could pull an upset, and I’m rooting for it, but it probably won’t happen.
Aurens: This is the weakest category for this year’s Oscars, and a done deal at that too. At this point, Kate Winslet farts and she gets nominated. Normally Judi is a pretty formidable force, but she’d have to play second fiddle to Helen this round. And I suspect Meryl’s nomination is a respecting nod rather than a deserving nod.
Grizzly: I wouldn’t say it’s the weakest category, but at the same time it feels like these five were the only ones with a real shot at a nomination. It would’ve certainly been nicer had there been 3-4 other performances that could’ve been nominated as well, but there really isn’t.
Aurens: Here comes the hard part: which role will Leonardo be nominated for and in which category? My hunch is telling me that his work in The Departed will be awarded somehow, considering the film will be nominated for Best Picture. So it’s either in Best Actor or Supporting Actor, and I want to catch him either way.
Grizzly: I hate category confusion. I hope the Academy does the right thing and nominates him as lead, because that’s what he is. I’d hate for him to get in at the expense of Nicholson too, like he did at the SAG Awards. I can’t imagine Nicholson missing out at the Oscars though. I also have a sneaking suspicion that Brad Pitt might make it on account of his stature, and at the expense of someone lesser known (most likely Haley).
Aurens: If Toni Collette gets a nomination, I’m going to throw something at something else. Again, this is a filler category, and Jennifer is going to be a crying mess at the Oscars.
Grizzly: What?! Collette was awesome! I’d much rather see her get in over Barraza. She might too, who knows? Weak category this year, though I haven’t seen Blanchett in Notes on a Scandal (I can already imagine that she’ll be my favorite of the five once I see it).
Aurens: The Guild is going to have to dictate this one because this field is so weak. Yet, Stranger Than Fiction is not great and it’s gonna be a shame if it’s gotten the nod over Pan’s Labyrinth. Plus, since Pan’s gonna have to be nominated for Best Foreign Picture, they’re going to have to nominate it for something else other than that lone category, and it may as well be here.
Grizzly: I’m betting on Pan as well. The early talk was that Volver would get in, but Pan has all the buzz at the moment, and if anything foreign is gonna get nominated, it should be that one. I have a feeling I might get screwed on United 93, but I’m just not feeling it. It felt like more of a directorial effort than a writing effort. I’d be happy if it got in though.
Aurens: Even though Thank You for Smoking made it to the final five with the Writers Guild, the fact that the Academy consists of mostly actors makes me think that they’d go for a more actor-ly Notes on a Scandal. Of course, Dreamgirls could be a force to reckon with and it’d show up here, but that’s a bit stretching it.
Grizzly: I love Thank You For Smoking so I can’t bet against it, even if it probably will be the first to go if something else makes it. Dreamgirls seems like the most logical alternate, since Best Picture nominees usually have writing nominations. The WGA snub hurt it though.
Aurens: It’s a shame that the best looking picture of the year is gonna be disregarded in favour of far lesser fare. I’m going to go a bit off the Guild track and take out The Good Shepherd for Babel. I still think Babel has the edge and cinematography would be a big tech win for the Best Picture winner.
Grizzly: I hope you’re not talking about Miami Vice. It was Collateral Lite, even cinematography-wise. I agree that Babel could show up here though, though I think it’d be at the expense of The Black Dahlia, not The Good Shepherd, out of your nominations. I’m going for Dreamgirls myself. A risky pick since I’ve never even heard of the cinematographer, but the movie looks like a million bucks as far as I can tell.
Aurens: It’s all about narrowing down what’s already been nominated by the Guild. My hunch is that Casino Royale would show its face somewhere other than sound, and it may as well be here. Also, I have not seen The Queen so I have no idea how impressive it was in terms of editing.
Grizzly: Seems like all too often films nominated for Best Picture automatically get nominated for editing. Hence why I’m picking The Queen. It’s completely unspectacular in terms of editing, but it seems almost besides the point if it’s one of the Best Picture nominees.
Aurens: I have near zero hope for Marie Antoinette, but I’m going to put it there out of good faith that somehow people remember how great its direction is. *sigh*
Grizzly: It took a major blow by not getting nominated by the guild, so it’s hard to say how big or small it’s odds are. It doesn’t feel like it’s the most strong year for Art Direction though, it may slip through, though I’m betting against it.
Aurens: How can Marie Antoinette lose this one, much less not nominated? It’d be a total shock for me, and not in a good way either.
Grizzly: I agree. This one belongs to Marie Antoinette. It got nominated by the guild though, so I’m not worried it’ll miss out.
Aurens: I don’t have the Guild to guide me on this one, so I’m stabbing in the dark here. Apocalypto seems like it’s got lots of make up?
Grizzly: I can’t imagine it being any other than those three out of the ones that made the shortlist. X-Men didn’t get nominated for the previous films, so there’s no real reason to expect it to happen this year.. and the rest seem unspectacular.
Aurens: I went mostly with the Guild, though I don’t think Flags of Our Fathers would make it in. I’m choosing a possible winner instead. Children of Men making it here would be most deserving.
Grizzly: Children of Men would indeed be a deserving choice. I highly doubt it’ll happen though since it seems like it missed the boat with most awards by opening so late in the year.
Aurens: Children of Men should be there for the last sequence alone, but will people remember? I’m putting Cars in because the animated feature winner should have a nomination other than the one in its category.
Grizzly: I’m going with Cars as well, here and in mixing. It seems to happen more often than not, especially in this category. With there being five nominees this year as well, I can’t imagine it missing out.
Aurens: It’s the blockbuster category. The effects weren’t very impressive this past year, though Superman Returns in 3D was good.
Grizzly: Surprisingly weak category. The award belongs to Dead Man’s Chest though, so on the other hand it doesn’t really matter what the other nominees are. Still, surprisingly few really good effects-heavy films last year. Davy Jones WAS impressive though.
Aurens: Prince won at the Globe so I think he’s in. There’s gotta be something from Dreamgirls, and it may as well be Listen. Then they can get Beyonce to perform at the Oscars. I’m going again with the big names here.
Grizzly: I’m going with Prince as well, for the same reason. I have no idea what the statistics say on how often or not the Globe winner misses out on the Oscar nomination. Weak song though, hopefully Jack Johnson’s memorable “Upside Down†makes it instead.
Aurens: I still don’t understand why Pan’s is gonna be ignored for this category. I’m just picking the well-known and the recently-won composers here.
Grizzly: Well, the composers are known for how they shun new, young composers. Some of the greatest scores in recent times were mostly looked over by the Oscars who instead went with someone old and familiar (with heaps of nominations from before). The ones I’m predicting are mostly younger talents, though none are first-timers. No room for them this year, I think.
Aurens: Quite honestly, beyond the first three films [Pan, Others, Volver], I’m not sure about any other nomination.
Grizzly: It’s always near-impossible to tell what gets nominated for this category, but they sure made it a whole lot easier this year. I must say I feel pretty confident about my choices though.
Aurens: Pixar has not lost this category to anyone else and I don’t expect any challenge from the other ones here. And I think Monster House would be nominated over my alternate because it seems like a better film and the animation group so far has not been too bad.
Grizzly: I hope you’re right about Monster House! I don’t dare to predict it, but I hope the Zemeckis/Spielberg connection helps it into the final three. That’d be a most pleasant surprise. Even better would be if Happy Feet missed out, but that’s not going to happen.
Aurens: I really have no clue about the nominations for this category. I know who’s gonna win though?
Grizzly: It’s basically just rolling the dice and picking at random. I did try to read up them (at least to get a grip on what they are about) and then try to pick a fairly diverse bunch of films.
The Oscars® will be televised live by the ABC Television Network at 5 p.m. PST (8 p.m. EST), beginning with a half-hour red carpet arrivals segment, “The Road to the Oscars.†The nominations will be broadcast live on January 23rd, 2007 at 5:30 a.m. PST (8:30 a. m. EST) on most major networks (NBC, ABC, CBS, E).
Oscar Fashion, Fashionably Late
Published March 1st, 2007 in All Things Oscar and Commentary. 0 CommentsI’m feeling lazy so I’ll do a mini run down of the Oscars fashion. The big trend this year seems to be all about straight hair, dark lipstick, skinny ties and one shoulder dresses. Without further ado, here is the fashion run down.
Queen of the night: Nicole Kidman. All I can say is, dayamm.
Best face to the world: These ladies were smokin’ hot - and classy to boot. Good enough to eat! Um, I said nothing. *dart eyes*
Best Dressed (beside Nicole Kidman’s stunning red dress, of course): Penelope’s poodle bottom dress looks surprisingly good on her. Cate Blanchett’s ready for war now, in style of course. Style kills? Har dee har har. Jessica Biel looks smashing from out of nowhere. I don’t know who or what a Samantha Harris is but I want her red carpet life. Just the red carpet part though. Helen Mirren silver foxes that dress. I don’t know what that means either. She looks good, mmkay? Cameron Diaz is just dazzling in that dress. She’s got the perfect tan for it too. Nothing beats getting over a Justin Timberlake ex like looking like you just found the fountain of youth and stomping mightily in it.
How NOT to make up a face: Ladies, the nineties is so last decade. Nobody thinks goth is a good idea anymore. Quit the death make-up and save your fashion soul. Kate Winslet needs to leave the caterpillar look to Martin Scorsese. I never thought I’d say this, but she looks like a man yo. Reese Witherspoon looks really good. For a corpse. All I gotta say about JLo is: botox happens. And finally, I gotta give some praise to the improved Anne Hathaway. She still looks like she could put her entire head in her mouth, but the girl can’t help herself. She actually manages to look … good. I knew there was an old-movie-star essence in there somewhere, waiting to be freed from the circus.
Gentlemen… and Pan: Hawt! Well, except Doug Jones channeling Pan. That’s, that’s just scary.
Now, for the fun (and beyotchy) part, worse dressed:
Kelly Preston: Sure the 80s is back (unfortunately), and we know you’re John Travolta’s wife, but please, have some self respect. That cheetah looks dead on you.
Natalie Portman: Oh Natalie. You keep giving us reasons to think you’d look so much better naked. Well, take it off! Whoo!
Elizabeth Shue: Well, at least she lives up to her namesake. The shues look good? Ha ha. God someone stop me.
Maggie Gyllenhaal: That dress does nothing for her, but it sure makes the ground she walks on cleaner.
Portia de Rossi: I love what’s happening upstairs, but I’m afraid of what’s going on downstairs. Ellen?
Sally Kirland: R. Kelly called. He said he was just kidding about the flying part. You can put away the wings now. And put on a proper bra. Please. For the children.
Isla Fisher: I love you, but you’re reminding me of a very boobly poodle. And poodles don’t have booblies.